@buc_it I’ve seen the speculation of a 1,3, and 5. If his knee checks out, and extension agreed to, I’m comfortable with a 1 and 4.

— Toby David (@TobyDavid) April 18, 2013

The final spot in the Rays rotation is the only one up for grabs this Spring. While a number of names are casually thrown into this mix, there are only two pitchers that have a legitimate shot at coming away one of the starters. And even amongst these two pitchers, one has a distinct advantage. Roberto Hernandez has the upside to be a dominant pitcher for the Rays. The problem is that he hasn’t been one in several seasons. There is a good chance he will get a couple starts this season as a fill in, but because of several factors, he won’t leave camp as the Rays #5 starter (barring a trade or injuries).

Jeff Niemann is the clear favorite to become the #5 pitcher for the Rays this season. Niemann has the stuff and pitchability to be a #3 pitcher in most rotations. His main weakness is an inability to stay healthy. In four seasons with the Rays, Niemann has only averaged 132 innings pitched per season. His career high of 180 innings pitched came in his first full season. He suffered a bit of bad luck in 2012, missing a large portion of the season after a line drive fractured his fibula. Once he made his return, shoulder pain shut him down for the remainder of the season.

Outside of remaining healthy, Niemann’s only other major weakness is an inability to pitch deep into games. He will give the Rays around six innings in most starts, but rarely pitches much further into a game than that. Given that he is battling to be the #5 pitcher, six innings while giving up two or three runs will more than suffice, as that is a typical Niemann performance.

Niemann is armed with a fastball that he can run into the mid 90′s, but sits in the low 90′s. Because of his tremendous height, his pitches travel towards the plate at an incredible downward plane that is difficult to square up. When he gets this pitch down in the zone, he is quite effective. His curveball is an above average pitch that has a ton of vertical movement. In recent years, he has moved away from his slider, and depended more on this curveball which is a nice strikeout pitch when finished down in the zone. He continues to mix in a slider, but not as often, and typically when he is looking for a strikeout versus righties. Niemann, also, throws a split finger fastball, which is one of his go to pitches versus lefties.

How do the Rays rank at this position compared to the rest of the American League East?

1. Ricky Romero Toronto
2. Jeff Niemann Tampa Bay
3. Ivan Nova New York
4. John Lackey Boston
5. Jair Jurrjens Baltimore

Ricky Romero had a hideous 2012, but go back and look at his seasons prior to last year. He has been one of the better left handed pitchers in baseball, and I’m going out on a limb thinking he will return to that level. Nova burst onto the scene in 2011, contending for the Rookie of the Year award. Unfortunately for him, 2012 was a major step backwards in his progression as a MLB pitcher. John Lackey was one of the better pitchers in baseball, which landed him a big contract with the Red Sox. He’s been terrible ever since, and underwent Tommy John surgery towards the end of 2011. He has upside, but it’s been a long time since he has pitched well. Jurrjens has battled frequent injuries over the past few seasons, including a shoulder injury in 2010 that has led to a decrease in velocity. He, too, has some upside, but quite a bit of risk as well.

Niemann’s success revolves around staying healthy. If he does, expect a strong season out of him. In limited action in 2012, he struck out more hitters and induced more groundballs than he had previously in his career. Was this him maturing as a pitcher, or a blip on the radar? Regardless, he will pitch well this season, when he pitches.

My prediction for Jeff Niemann in 2013: 13-6 3.75ERA 170IP 145K 50BB

Based on numerous media reports, Ben Zobrist appears that he will be getting more playing time in Right Field in 2013. Free Agent acquisition Kelly Johnson would get a majority of the reps at Second Base versus right handed pitchers under this scenario, with Joyce moving to Left Field. Expect to see Joyce out of the lineup versus most lefties, with Johnson moving to Left Field in these situations.

The question then becomes, what happens when Wil Myers gets called up to the Big League squad? Someone will be left out of the lineup, and Kelly Johnson would appear to be that “someone”. But if Johnson is hitting like he did in 2010, and Myers is raking at Durham, the Rays could have an interesting dilemma on their hands.

Joyce heads into his second year of arbitration in 2014, meaning he will start to get more expensive.  Joyce’s previous representation had attempted to get him signed to an extension. Did this lead to Joyce’s switching of agents to ACES, a powerful sports agent group? Does this mean Joyce could be dangled as trade bait at some point? It’s certainly something to keep an eye on through this season, and into next offseason.

For many teams it is a luxury to be able to have four legitimate starting pitchers. The Rays have 7-8 pitchers that could slide into the rotation and not look out of place. Alex Cobb doesn’t get much respect from the Rays fanbase, but he certainly does from the Rays organization, as they have already made it clear his spot in the rotation is safe. Cobb reminds me of James Shields earlier in his career based on his repertoire.

Cobb features a fringe-average fastball in terms of velocity. He doesn’t need to be pinpoint with his fastball, as long as he can keep it down in the zone. Cobb generates strong sink action on his fastball, which leads to an excellent groundball rate. Strong groundball rates lead to less extra base hits, and better run prevention. His bread and butter is a “swing and miss” changeup. This is an excellent pitch that keeps hitters off balance and allows Cobb to maintain a solid strikeout rate. Cobb’s curveball is a nice offering, as it shows sharp downward bite. It is an underrated part of his arsenal, but is one more pitch a hitter must be concerned with.

For all the talk of Chris Archer, Cobb has a better resume throughout his minor league career. At the AA level, Cobb had 18% more strikeouts with 50% less walks when compared to Archer. In AAA, they had roughly the same strikeout rate, but with 35% less walks. Clearly, Archer has better pure stuff, but Cobb has outperformed him at every level. While Archer’s “ceiling” may be higher, Cobb has a higher “likely performance”. Cobb’s success didn’t stop in the minor leagues.

With an ERA of 3.86 in 189 innings pitched at the MLB level, Cobb has shown he belongs in the Rays rotation. Cobb battled offseason surgery and some bad luck in 2012. His LOB%, as well as some other peripheral stats, indicate he could be prime for a bounce back season.

How do the Rays rank at this position compared to the rest of the American League East?

1. Mark Buehrle Toronto
2. Alex Cobb Tampa Bay
3. Miguel Gonzalez Baltimore
4. Phil Hughes Yankees
5. Felix Doubront Red Sox

Mark Buehrle returns from a year hiatus from the American League, and is still, strikingly, the same pitcher he has been throughout his career. Buehrle is a workhorse that will give you 200+ innings pitched and an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00. Those pitchers are quite valuable, especially when you can slot them #4 in your rotation. How will the AL East and age treat him this season? Miguel Gonzalez burst onto the scene for the Orioles in 2012. Although he only threw 105 innings, he finished 9-4 with a 3.25 ERA. If the Orioles want to compete again this season, they’ll need more where that came from. Phil Hughes was an All Star in 2010, but since then he has battled injuries and ineffectiveness. With all of the question marks surrounding the Yankees, they will need Hughes to revert back to 2010 form. Felix Doubront fit in well with the 2012 Red Sox. High expectations and he crashed and burned.

I’m a big believer in Alex Cobb. What’s not to like? He generates a ton of groundballs and strikes out his fair share of batters. He must stay healthy, as 2012 was by far a career high in innings pitched. It will be interesting to see if Cobb has toyed with a cutter, as every other Rays pitcher has done in recent years. Cobb is entering Stage Three of his progression as a professional pitcher, and he would benefit greatly from this step.

My prediction for Alex Cobb in 2013: 16-9 3.65ERA 190IP 145K 55BB